黑色商品日报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron Ore: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: On August 27, 2025, the rebar futures market had a narrow - range adjustment. The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 73,400 lots in positions. Spot prices slightly declined, and trading volume remained low. This week, the national building materials production increased by 53,900 tons to 4.0883 million tons, social inventory increased by 160,300 tons to 6.1761 million tons, factory inventory increased by 83,100 tons to 3.1516 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.8449 million tons. Since August, the supply - demand situation in the rebar spot market has continuously deteriorated, with increased supply, low demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the futures market. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will oscillate weakly [1]. - Iron Ore: On August 27, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract i2601 decreased to 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. In terms of supply, Australia's iron ore shipments increased significantly, Brazil's shipments declined from the high level, and the shipments from other countries decreased, resulting in a slight decline in global iron ore shipments. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2407,500 tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased, while the steel mills' inventory decreased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that iron ore prices will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: On August 27, 2025, the coking coal futures market declined. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.56%, with an increase of 7067 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of gas - bearing raw coal in Xinzhou, Shanxi, decreased by 31 yuan to 506 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 7 yuan to 978 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal remaining unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, and many coal mines in major production areas such as Shanxi have stopped production. The downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. The eighth round of coke price increase has not received a response from steel mills. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will oscillate [1]. - Coke: On August 27, 2025, the coke futures market declined. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton or 0.68%, with an increase of 442 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of port coke remained stable. After seven rounds of price increases, the profits of coke enterprises have improved significantly. However, due to environmental protection and other factors, some coke enterprises have had phased production restrictions, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The coke enterprises' inventory pressure is small. In terms of demand, traffic control in some areas has affected the arrival of coke at steel mills, and with the approaching military parade, more steel mills have production restrictions. The steel market outlook is weak, and steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, and the positions in the main contract increased by 6261 lots to 306,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has changed rapidly. On the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped in the late trading session, and the black - goods sector was weak, with coking coal leading the decline. Although the futures price has decreased, the spot market has strong price - holding sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the production cost of manganese silicon is still relatively stable, and the price of port manganese ore remains unchanged. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of manganese silicon has been increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. There is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals, and it is not sufficient to support a continuous upward movement of the manganese silicon futures price. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon futures price will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [1]. - Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5634 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease, and the positions in the main contract decreased by 1503 lots to 218,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the late trading session affected the black - goods sector, and the ferrosilicon futures price dropped. In terms of fundamentals, the weekly production of ferrosilicon has been increasing, and the year - on - year increase exceeds 10%. The demand for steel has been suppressed, and the demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon has remained basically unchanged. The inventory pressure is acceptable, as the inventory of 60 sample enterprises, although still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, has decreased for two consecutive weeks. Overall, there are no major contradictions in the ferrosilicon fundamentals in the near term, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment. It is expected that ferrosilicon will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black - goods products, along with their changes compared to the previous period. For example, the 10 - 1 spread for rebar is - 61.0, with a 11.0 increase; the basis for the 10 - contract is 179.0, with an 8.0 decrease; and the spot price in Shanghai is 3290.0, with a 10.0 decrease [3]. - Profits and Spreads: Information on profits and spreads of different products is also presented. For instance, the rebar futures profit is - 46.3, with a 5.4 increase; the long - process profit is 34.6, with a 6.4 decrease; the short - process profit is 15.6, with a 10.0 decrease; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 238.0, with a 16.0 decrease; and the coke - to - iron - ore ratio is 2.2, with a 0.01 decrease [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025, which helps in observing the long - term price trends of these products [5][7][9][13][16]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts of the basis for various products are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, which can assist in analyzing the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19][20][22][23][24][25]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for each product, which is useful for understanding the price differences between different contract periods [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - Inter - product Contract Spreads: Charts of the spreads between different products, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, rebar - to - coke ratio, coke - to - iron - ore ratio, coking coal - to - coke ratio, and ferrosilicon - manganese silicon spread, are shown, helping to analyze the relative price relationships between different black - goods products [42][43][45][47]. - Rebar Profits: Charts of the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit are provided, which can be used to assess the profitability of rebar production [46][48][52]. 3.3 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - goods research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and achievements. For example, Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black - goods research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54].