Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved record oil and gas production in H1 2025, demonstrating resilience in profitability during periods of oil price volatility [5][11]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, the company has shown strong cash flow performance and maintained a prudent financial policy [5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 207.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4]. - The Q2 2025 results showed a total revenue of 100.8 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.0 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year [4]. Production and Operational Highlights - The company achieved a net production of 385 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, marking a 6.1% increase year-on-year, setting a historical high for the same period [6]. - Natural gas production increased by 12.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from new gas field projects [6]. Cost Management - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent decreased by 0.81 USD to 26.94 USD, reflecting effective cost control measures [8]. - The company continues to strengthen its cost competitiveness, with a focus on maintaining a cost-leading strategy during periods of oil price fluctuations [8]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a mid-year dividend payout ratio of 45.9%, reflecting its intent to share development results with shareholders [9]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, to support stable production growth [10]. - The production target for 2025 is set at 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a focus on high-quality development and effective production growth [10]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 135.4 billion, 139.8 billion, and 144.3 billion yuan respectively, with expected EPS of 2.85, 2.94, and 3.04 yuan per share [11].
中国海油(600938):2025年半年报点评:25H1油气产量再创新高,油价波动期盈利韧性凸显