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日度策略参考-20250828
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-28 06:33

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - Stock Index: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - Gold: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - Silver: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - Aluminum: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - Nickel: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - Tin: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - Polysilicon: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - Iron Ore: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - Glass: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - Soda Ash: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - Soybean Oil: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - Cotton: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - Sugar: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - Corn: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - Paper Pulp: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - Log Futures: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live Pigs: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Natural Rubber: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - BR Rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - PE: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - Short - Fiber: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - Styrene: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].