牛市回踩是否需要聚焦主线？

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that after a market rally, the leading stocks that perform well during the pullback tend to have positive excess returns in the following month, particularly within the week after the pullback day [1][3] - The report identifies "leading main lines" based on historical data, where sectors that showed strong performance prior to a pullback day and maintained their ranking on that day are likely to outperform in subsequent trading days [2][7] - The analysis highlights that the cumulative excess returns for "non-main lines" are generally negative in the weeks following a pullback, but these sectors may recover in the longer term, indicating a potential rotation [3][13] Group 2 - The report quantifies the "main line" and "non-main line" sectors by analyzing the top-performing industries over the 20 trading days leading up to a pullback, with specific examples including communication equipment, consumer electronics, and semiconductors identified as main lines [2][8] - Historical data from 2003 onwards shows that in similar market conditions, certain sectors consistently performed well after pullbacks, such as automotive in 2003 and software development in 2024 [3][13] - The report provides a correlation analysis between the performance of sectors on the pullback day and their subsequent performance over various time frames, indicating a strong correlation within the first week [14][15] Group 3 - The report discusses industry profit expectations and valuations, presenting data on projected net profit growth rates and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios across various indices, including the overall A-share market and specific sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market [16][18] - It highlights the current and historical PE ratios, indicating that the overall A-share market has a PE of 16.45 for 2024, with a projected decline in net profit growth [18][20] - The analysis of PB-ROE (Price-to-Book and Return on Equity) ratios across different sectors reveals insights into valuation levels, with the overall A-share market showing a PB of 1.76, indicating a relatively moderate valuation compared to historical highs and lows [19][20]