Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with several precipitation events expected, but dry conditions in some areas may lead to a decline in crop yields. The futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan on August 27, 2025, with a net outflow in commodity futures and an inflow in stock index futures [1][5][7][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The exchange rates of the US dollar index and multiple currencies are also provided [1] 02 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from September 1 - 5 shows generally low temperatures and above - median precipitation. The cool weather in the US Midwest will continue until next week, with precipitation expected, but dry conditions in the south and east may cause a decline in crop yields [3][5] - International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil industry calls for the government to reinvest windfall profit tax revenue and adjust the tax threshold. Ghana plans to narrow the gap between palm oil production and consumption. Analysts predict US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales. Brazilian farmers are preparing for the 2025/26 planting season, and the soybean harvest in Goiás state in 2024/25 reached a record high. Low soybean meal prices have affected South American crushing margins. Canadian rapeseed crushing data for July 2025 are provided, and Australia's rapeseed production forecast is given. The Baltic Dry Index rose for the third consecutive day [7][9][10][11][12] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 27, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the operating rate of oil mills declined. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price decreased [15] 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 88.7%. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products [18] - Domestic News - On August 27, 2025, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was lowered. The central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan. In July, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed [20] 05 Capital Flows - On August 27, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.44 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.107 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 15.546 billion yuan in stock index futures [23] 06 Arbitrage Tracking - Not mentioned in the provided content
国富期货早间看点-20250828
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-28 06:41