EIA周度报告点评-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively bullish as inventories of crude oil and major refined products have all declined. Although the refinery operating rate has decreased, the strong diesel demand is reassuring for market bulls. With the start of the autumn harvest, diesel demand will seasonally strengthen, and the relatively low distillate inventory may keep distillate cracking firm, thus supporting refining demand. After the data was released last night, oil prices generally fluctuated upwards [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.392 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 776,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, falling short of the expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 900,000 barrels [2] - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased from 420.684 million barrels to 418.292 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 23.47 million barrels to 22.632 million barrels; U.S. strategic reserve inventory increased from 403.425 million barrels to 404.201 million barrels; U.S. gasoline inventory decreased from 223.57 million barrels to 222.334 million barrels; U.S. distillate inventory decreased from 116.028 million barrels to 114.242 million barrels; U.S. total crude oil chain inventory decreased from 1.666537 billion barrels to 1.662919 billion barrels [3] Production, Import, Processing, and Demand Data - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. crude oil production increased from 13.382 million barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2.125 million barrels per day to 2.424 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased from 17.208 million barrels per day to 16.88 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased from 21.093 million barrels per day to 21.14975 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. gasoline apparent demand increased from 9.0085 million barrels per day to 9.0305 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. distillate apparent demand increased from 3.74825 million barrels per day to 3.88225 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. jet fuel apparent demand decreased from 1.8815 million barrels per day to 1.7905 million barrels per day [3] Market Analysis - Last week, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. Although the commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, the decline in the refinery operating rate slightly diluted the positive effect. The weekly refinery operating rate decreased by 2.0% to 94.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the driving peak season usually ends on the Labor Day weekend in early September, after which the refinery operating rate shows a seasonal decline [4] - In the refined product market, gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumption ability or willingness of U.S. residents in the context of low oil prices. However, distillate demand has continued to rebound, far exceeding last year's level and the average of previous years last week, leading to an unexpected decrease in distillate inventory. As autumn approaches, distillate demand will increase with the autumn harvest while the inventory is relatively low, and distillate cracking is expected to remain firm. The market will focus more on distillates in the future [6]