镍、不锈钢周报：镍价低位震荡-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Although refined nickel imports exceeded expectations last month, part of the inventory became hidden, causing no significant impact on domestic supply. The nickel ore price is relatively firm, with no further downward drivers in the future. Despite the expectation of peak - season stockpiling in September, which may support the demand for primary nickel, the supply side remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Weak demand dominates short - term price adjustments, while the peak - season expectations of "Golden September and Silver October" may provide bottom support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - Price - related: As of August 22, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week; the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by 0 and 0.1 to 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang Port were flat at 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan per nickel point to 930 yuan per nickel point, a 0.49% increase [3][27]. - Production - related: As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase; the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.01 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.04% decrease; Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][57]. - Inventory - related: As of August 22, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 411 tons to 2.26 million tons, a 1.86% increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1914 tons to 20.97 million tons, a 0.90% decrease; the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 1019 tons to 4.09 million tons, a 2.43% decrease [40]. - Trade - related: In July 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 1.55 million tons, a 53.27% increase; the monthly import volume was 3.82 million tons, a 124.36% increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 10.73 million tons, an 80.28% increase; the cumulative import volume was 13.51 million tons, a 180.97% increase [37]. Stainless Steel - Price - related: Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2510 opened at 13015 yuan per ton and closed at 12750 yuan per ton, a 2.0% decrease. As of August 25, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 50 to 13075 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease [63]. - Production - related: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons. Among them, the 300 - series production increased by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series production increased by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series production decreased by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [66]. - Inventory - related: As of August 22, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 109.17 million tons, a 1.19% increase. Among them, the 300 - series inventory increased by 1.42 million tons to 65.87 million tons, a 2.20% increase. As of August 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1406 tons to 10.17 million tons, a 1.36% decrease [68]. - Cost and Profit - related: As of August 22, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 52 yuan per ton to 13054 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the production profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to - 3.52% [72]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Production - related: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. The monthly import volume was 1.69 million tons, a 27.63% increase; the monthly export volume was 660.5 tons, a 15.55% decrease [50]. - Profit - related: As of August 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag changed by - 0.1, + 1.2, + 0.5, and + 1.1 percentage points to - 1.1%, - 2.4%, 4.9%, and - 1.4% respectively compared to last week [53].