KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-28 07:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Overseas Development is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading real estate enterprise with stable operational performance, despite a decline in revenue and profit. The focus remains on high-quality land acquisition and steady growth in commercial property [5][6] - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 19.88 billion, 21.54 billion, and 22.49 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 1.97, and 2.05 yuan, indicating a PE ratio of 6.9, 6.4, and 6.1 times respectively [5][6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 83.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. The profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin was 17.4%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the full year of 2024 [6] - The company has a cash reserve of 108.96 billion yuan, accounting for 12.1% of total assets, and declared a dividend of 0.25 HKD per share, representing 28.7% of core net profit [6] Sales and Land Acquisition - The sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 120.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, maintaining the second position in the industry with a market share of 2.72% [7] - The company acquired 17 plots of land with a total expenditure of 40.37 billion yuan, achieving a land acquisition intensity of 33.6% [7] Commercial Operations - The commercial revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.54 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, with a significant portion of revenue coming from first-tier cities [8] - The average occupancy rate for hotels was 68.2%, and the rental rate for long-term apartments was 94% for those opened for more than six months [8]