Guoxin Securities·2025-08-28 07:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][40]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and core profit in the first half of 2025, driven by its brand matrix [1][7]. - The management remains confident in the company's development and has updated the guidance for 2025, indicating continued growth potential [3][37]. - The acquisition of JACK WOLFSKIN is expected to enhance the outdoor brand matrix and contribute positively to future growth [30]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 14.3% year-on-year to 38.54 billion RMB, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 14.5% to 7.03 billion RMB [1][7]. - The revenue breakdown by brand shows Anta at 16.95 billion RMB (up 5.4%), FILA at 14.18 billion RMB (up 8.6%), and other brands at 7.41 billion RMB (up 61.1%) [2][7]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4%, while the operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 26.3% due to effective cost control [1][8]. Brand Performance - Anta brand's revenue growth is attributed to refined operations and a push for globalization, with a gross margin of 54.9% [25]. - FILA brand focuses on high-end sports fashion and professional breakthroughs, achieving a revenue of 14.18 billion RMB with a gross margin of 68.0% [29]. - Other brands, including DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT, saw significant growth, with a revenue increase of 61.1% and a gross margin of 73.9% [30]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 13.48 billion RMB, 15.46 billion RMB, and 17.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 13.0%, 14.6%, and 12.3% [3][40]. - The reasonable valuation has been adjusted to 119-124 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23-24x for 2025 [3][40]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash position is reported at 31.54 billion RMB, indicating a strong financial condition [1][22]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 1.37 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50.2% [1][22].