格林大华期货铂钯上市专题系列（四）：钯金价格走势及产业链介绍

Report Overview - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a public consultation announcement on platinum, palladium futures and options contracts and related rules on July 31, 2025, indicating the upcoming official listing of these products, which further improves the precious metal derivatives system and provides new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - This report focuses on the metallic properties of platinum group metals and analyzes the historical price trends of palladium [1] Palladium Spot Price Trends Long - term Trends - From 2006 to 2015, palladium prices moved in sync with gold and silver, benefiting from global liquidity expansion and increased risk - aversion demand. After the 2008 financial crisis, all three metals rebounded strongly [5] - After 2015, palladium developed an independent trend. Driven by the explosion in automotive catalyst demand and supply shortages in South Africa, its price reached a historical peak of $3,433.00 per ounce around 2021, outperforming gold and silver [5] - Since 2022, palladium prices have declined due to the acceleration of the new - energy transition and the slowdown of the global economy, while gold and silver prices have remained relatively stable supported by central bank gold purchases and risk - aversion demand [5] Recent Trends - From 2023 - 2025, the palladium market showed unique characteristics, with more volatile price movements compared to other precious metals, influenced by both industrial and financial attributes [10] - In early 2025, the market was in a volatile pattern. In May, the expected copper tariff in the US led to preventive purchases of palladium due to its co - application with copper in the automotive and industrial sectors, and geopolitical uncertainties also redirected some funds to palladium [10] - The supply side has been tight, with production in Russia and South Africa constrained by geopolitical factors and infrastructure issues. The demand side has seen a structural change, with traditional automotive catalyst demand under long - term pressure from new - energy substitution, but emerging applications in the electronics and hydrogen industries providing new growth points [10][12] - As policy expectations changed, the palladium price corrected. In the long run, the market remains in a tight balance, with the development of the hydrogen industry providing support, and the market is in a transition period from traditional to emerging demand, characterized by high volatility and unique allocation value [12] Introduction to Platinum Group Metals - Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum (Pt), palladium (Pd), rhodium (Rh), iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), and ruthenium (Ru). They are important among precious metals and have irreplaceable industrial value in fields such as catalysis, electronics, aerospace, and hydrogen energy [14] - PGMs have unique physical and chemical properties: high melting and boiling points, electrical and thermal stability, chemical inertness, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance, and excellent catalytic performance [16] - Due to these properties, PGMs and their alloys are indispensable catalyst materials in modern industries, playing a key role in automotive exhaust purification, petrochemical hydrocracking, and fine - chemical organic synthesis [17] Palladium Industry Chain Structure Upstream - The upstream of the palladium industry includes exploration, mining, and rough refining. Global palladium resources are highly concentrated in Russia and South Africa, which together contribute over 80% of global production. The main task is to extract palladium concentrates from copper - nickel symbiotic ores. China is at a disadvantage in this segment and mostly relies on imports [20] Mid - stream - The mid - stream focuses on purification and standardized product production. Palladium is purified to ≥99.95% purity through techniques such as solvent extraction and ion exchange, and is converted into palladium ingots (used for investment reserves) and sponge palladium (the core raw material for automotive catalysts). Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Precious Metals Group participate in global competition through overseas resource deployment and technological upgrades [20] Downstream - The downstream is mainly dominated by automotive catalysts, especially in gasoline vehicle exhaust purification. Other applications include electronics, chemical manufacturing, medical consumption, and the investment market. Recycling is a key supplementary link, with over 70% of recycled palladium coming from scrapped automotive catalysts, and the global recycling supply accounting for 32.5%. China is upgrading its recycling system through the "trade - in" policy [23]