航运板块研发报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping spot market is in a smooth downward trend during the off - season, and the 10 - contract valuation is expected to be revised downwards. The market will be under pressure from tariffs in the second half of the year, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify [2][4][158] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the peak season cargo volume reached its peak and declined, shipping companies faced greater pressure to secure cargoes, and the ship loading rate decreased. The spot freight rate entered a rapid downward channel. As of August 22, 2025, the SCFI European line was reported at $1668/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35% [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - On the demand side, the peak - season cargo volume has declined from its high point, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has dropped. Since August 1, the trade pressure from the US reciprocal tariff increase has emerged, and the freight rate to the US West Coast has hit a new low this year. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity from August to October 2025 is 297,800/298,900/270,400 TEU respectively. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly during the off - season. The freight rate is expected to continue its downward trend, and the freight rate center should not be overestimated in the second half of the year [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In August, the cargo volume reached its peak and then declined, driving the freight rate down. The EC market followed the spot and showed a weakening trend. The freight rate reduction by shipping companies exceeded market expectations, causing the EC2510 to break below the 1400 - point support level in mid - August. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline smoothly during the off - season, and the 10 - contract freight rate center may be revised downwards [8] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Shipping Companies Lower Quotes, Spot Freight Enters Downward Channel - In August, as the cargo volume declined, shipping companies lowered their spot quotes. The average SCFI in August (as of August 22) decreased by 12.17% month - on - month and 53.58% year - on - year. The competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year [19][20] 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Declines in July - In July, the global container new - ship delivery was 104,300 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.5%. The global container idle capacity increased significantly in August. The shipping capacity supply in September is still abundant [49][69] 3.3.3 Export Growth in July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Tariff Pressure in the Second Half - In July, China's exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Although exports to the US continued to decline, exports to the EU and ASEAN increased. The second half of the year will face greater pressure from tariffs [121] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Future Outlook - The freight rate pressure is prominent, and the shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The freight rate center in the second half of August has dropped below $2500/FEU. The supply of shipping capacity in September is abundant, and the cargo volume is not optimistic under the tariff pressure. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly, and the overall freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down [158] 3.4.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [159]