华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250828

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the evolution of consumption [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. The market is closely watching the upcoming US inflation data to find clues about the Fed's interest rate cuts. After Trump tried to fire Fed Governor Cook, concerns about the Fed's independence persist [2] - The downstream demand is the core concern. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors have different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum plate sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles. However, as the aluminum price rebounds, the terminal shipment volume declines again, and the spot procurement volume of processing enterprises decreases significantly [3] - On Wednesday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 466,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and the downstream procurement sentiment is weak [3]