商务部 9 月将出台扩大服务消费的若干政策

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to EU sanctions on Russia and political events in France and Ukraine [14][15] - The upward trend of US stocks remains intact, and investors can buy on dips after short - term corrections, supported by tech giants' AI capital expenditure and interest - rate cut expectations [18][19] - For stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices, considering policies to expand service consumption and industrial profit data [20][22] - In the bond market, unilateral long positions should be taken with caution. Investors with stock positions can consider long bonds to hedge potential stock price corrections [24][25] - For commodities, different investment suggestions are provided for each category based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine and the US will hold a meeting on the 29th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. France's Prime Minister will meet with the opposition to avoid a trust vote. The EU is considering secondary sanctions on Russia [12][13][14] - The dollar index is expected to move in a volatile manner due to these events [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's data center revenue in the last fiscal quarter was lackluster, and the revenue guidance was not impressive. Fed official Williams hinted at a possible adjustment in interest - rate policy [16][17] - The short - term adjustment of US stocks is to release valuation pressure, and the upward trend remains intact. Investors can buy on dips [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and jointly formulate measures to promote service exports with relevant departments [20] - In July, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices [21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - From January to July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3799 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan [23][24] - Unless the stock market continues to adjust or the central bank's monetary policy turns unexpectedly loose, treasury bonds lack the opportunity for continuous growth. Unilateral long positions should be taken with caution [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, the estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills is about 10.3025 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in October and November are 9 million tons and 7.5 million tons respectively [26] - The USDA will release its export sales report. Sino - US relations are the most important uncertain factor affecting the price trend. The price of soybean meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [27] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 36.41% month - on - month. Malaysia has formulated an emergency plan for agricultural exports according to EU regulations [28][29] - The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, waiting for more data [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton picking in Xinjiang is expected to be advanced. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress is 60.3%, and the growth progress of US cotton is slow but the quality is high [31][32][33] - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, which will support the price in the short term. Zheng cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner [34] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. In July, transportation fixed - asset investment was 306.1 billion yuan. In August, the retail and wholesale of passenger cars increased year - on - year [35][37][38] - Steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, and a short - term volatile trading strategy is recommended [38][39] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the southwest market is stable. The coking coal futures price is expected to adjust in the short term but has strong support below [40][42] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - From August 21 - 27, the开机率 of the corn starch industry decreased slightly, and the inventory also decreased slightly. The current inventory is at a high level, and the seasonal de - stocking inflection point may be postponed [43] - The price difference between corn starch and corn has fallen to a low level, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to widen it [44] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of August 22, the inventory of corn in the northern port continued to decline, and the grain inventory in the southern port increased slightly month - on - month [45] - Short positions can be held for a while, and attention should be paid to factors affecting supply and demand [45] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In the first half of 2025, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had significant growth in revenue and net profit. The short - term trend of pig futures is expected to be volatile and weak, and investors can pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity [47][48] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In July, the coal import volume of the Philippines decreased. The price of steam coal is expected to continue its seasonal weakness [49][50] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fortescue's iron ore shipments in FY25 reached 198.4 million tons, and its cost decreased. The iron ore price is expected to move in a volatile manner, and the iron - making volume is expected to decline next week and then rebound [51][52] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang have entered the sugar - increasing period. The price of red date futures is expected to move in a narrow range around 11,400 yuan/ton, and investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $38.74/ton. The US may list lead as a critical mineral, and the regeneration rate in September may decline [56] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 26, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $4.61/ton. Zijin Mining's zinc production increased. The stock market decline affected zinc prices, and the domestic supply is loosening [58][59] - It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities [60] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry proposed to resist price competition and strengthen capacity self - discipline. The Bougouni lithium mine in Mali was attacked [61][62] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive - spread trading [63] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - stage pumping operation of the Kakula mine is about to start. Canada is researching a financing plan for key mineral projects [64][65] - The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [67] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Eramet plans to increase its nickel ore production to 42 million tons this year. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline in September - October, and the nickel price is expected to have short - term band - trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [69][71] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - From August 16 - 22, US EIA commercial crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. The oil price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the seasonal inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [72][73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 27, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda is expected to remain stable in the near future [74][75] - Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [76] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The pulp market is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC futures price is expected to move in a volatile manner [79][81] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From August 20 - 27, the inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The styrene market in September is expected to improve marginally, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [82][83] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with individual slight decreases. The inventory of bottle chips is accelerating to decline, and attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees from plant restart and new capacity in September [84][86] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal plans to invest 3.97 billion euros to upgrade its ports. The spot freight rate is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [87][88][89]