Guoxin Securities·2025-08-28 08:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 25.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.62 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The growth in revenue is driven by the recovery in packaged water sales, continued high growth in tea beverages, and strong performance in functional drinks and juices [2][8] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 60.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material prices and increased production capacity utilization [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from water, tea, functional drinks, juices, and other beverages grew by 10.7%, 19.7%, 13.6%, 21.3%, and 14.8% respectively, with total revenues reaching 9.44 billion, 10.09 billion, 2.90 billion, 2.56 billion, and 0.63 billion yuan [2][8] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [1][7] Cost and Efficiency - The company experienced a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2.8 percentage points due to lower advertising and promotional expenses, as well as reduced logistics costs [3][9] - The management expense ratio remained stable year-on-year, while other income as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.5 percentage points due to lower interest income from deposits [3][9] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 50.53 billion, 57.28 billion, and 63.70 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 13.3%, and 11.2% respectively [4][16] - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.16 billion, 17.45 billion, and 19.60 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.0%, 15.1%, and 12.3% [4][16]