ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-28 09:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [3][10] Core Views - Current performance has a limited impact on the stock price, with favorable policies from Hainan Free Trade Port benefiting duty-free businesses. The operational capabilities of the company are continuously evolving, accumulating positive factors for long-term development [4][5] - Demand expectations remain the core factor influencing the stock price. Continuous consumer promotion policies may benefit the company if consumer expectations improve [7] - The company has introduced over 60 new brands in Hainan and is enhancing its operational capabilities by aligning with current consumer trends, which strengthens its market position [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.8% year-on-year [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 53.275 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 3.981 billion yuan, reflecting a decline from previous estimates [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.92 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.7 [3][9]