Changjiang Securities·2025-08-28 10:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - In July, the supply of core land in major cities continued to slow down, while there was a marginal improvement in land supply in lower-tier cities. Overall land transactions remained flat, with only lower-tier cities showing a year-on-year improvement [2][10] - Major developers such as China Overseas, Greentown, and Zhaoshang actively participated in the land market in July, with strong land acquisition intensity observed in the first seven months from Jinmao, Jianfa, and Greentown. Jinmao and Jianfa also performed better in sales [2][8] - Among the key projects acquired by sample developers in July, the expected profit realization for Binjiang was relatively better, while Greentown, Zhaoshang, and China Overseas acquired land in higher-quality locations [2][9] Supply Summary - In July, the supply of core land continued to decline, with lower-tier cities seeing an increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative area of residential land launched in 300 cities decreased by 17% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up by 23%, second-tier cities down by 2%, and third and fourth-tier cities down by 21% [6] - The monthly supply of residential land in July for 300 cities decreased by 22% month-on-month, but was still higher than the monthly values from January to May [6] Transaction Summary - The overall land transaction volume in July was flat, with a year-on-year improvement in lower-tier cities. From January to July, the cumulative area and transaction amount of residential land in 300 cities decreased by 6% and increased by 25% year-on-year, respectively [7] - In July, the transaction volume decreased by 16% month-on-month, with a transaction premium rate of 8.4%, showing a marginal increase, and the auction failure rate further decreased to 7.6% [7] Developer Insights - In July, China Overseas, Greentown, and Zhaoshang were active in the land market, with the top three developers in terms of total land acquisition amount being China Overseas (14.9 billion), Greentown (13.9 billion), and Zhaoshang (6.8 billion) [8] - The cumulative land acquisition amount from January to July for the top three developers was Greentown (62.1 billion), Jianfa (61.7 billion), and China Overseas (55.3 billion), with several developers seeing over 80% year-on-year growth in land acquisition amounts [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on medium to long-term structural opportunities, emphasizing leading developers with regional advantages, strong product capabilities, and light inventory, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [10]