冠通期货早盘速递-20250828

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]