冠通每日交易策略-20250828

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on August 28, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined, with apples rising over 2%, and iron ore, corn, wire rod, and BR rubber rising over 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell over 3%, lithium carbonate and eggs fell over 2%, and paraxylene, live pigs, rapeseed, short - fiber, PTA, and palm oil fell over 1%. Stock index futures mostly rose, while treasury bond futures mostly declined [6] - As of 15:17 on August 28, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 2.294 billion, coking coal 2601 had an inflow of 494 million, and iron ore 2601 had an inflow of 459 million. Outflows included 4.756 billion from Shanghai gold 2510, 515 million from CSI 500 2509, and 478 million from Shanghai aluminum 2510 [8] 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper opened and trended lower, with intraday shock under pressure. Overseas macro - factors involve continued speculation on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the Fed's independence is questioned. Supply - side factors include Codelco's adjustment of production targets, inventory changes, and cost factors. Demand is tepid but shows some signs of improvement. The market has no clear upward drive but has support at the bottom. The US dollar index suppresses the upside of copper prices [10] - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, with intraday weak shock. Prices declined, and import volumes decreased. Production is expected to decline in August - September. Demand has support from downstream restocking, but the market is easily affected by industry news. The supply - side disturbance continues, and attention should be paid to market news [11][12] - Crude Oil: Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. US inventories are decreasing, but OPEC + plans to increase production in September. Saudi Aramco raised prices, and there are concerns about the US economy. EIA and IEA raised the forecast of global oil surplus, and factors such as US - India trade policies may affect the market. Consumption peak is ending, and supply - demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [13] - Asphalt: Supply - side factors include a decline in the asphalt开工 rate, production plan adjustments, and potential impacts on raw material costs. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and the weakening cost support from crude oil. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently [15] - PP: PP downstream开工率 rebounded slightly, and the enterprise开工率 is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to changes in the crude oil market. Supply has increased with new capacity, and demand is weak but may improve in the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate [16] - Plastic: Plastic开工率 rose, and downstream开工率 increased slightly. The cost is affected by the crude oil market. Supply has increased with new capacity, and demand is weak but may improve with the start of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate [18] - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. Supply - side开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 is low. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [19][21] - Coking Coal: Coking coal opened low and closed slightly higher. Imported coal affects domestic prices, and production decreased due to environmental protection. Downstream demand is affected by environmental protection and profit factors. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22] - Urea: Urea opened low and trended higher. The spot market improved, and upstream factories had maintenance. Demand has industrial support but is affected by environmental protection. Inventory is at a high level. The market is expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term and may have opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [23][24]