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药石科技(300725):整体稳步恢复,后端增长强劲,一体化优势有望逐步发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [5][14]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady recovery with strong growth in the backend, and its integrated advantages are expected to gradually take effect [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 920 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.54% [6]. - The strategic focus is on revenue scale expansion and nurturing strategic clients, which has led to a higher growth rate in operating costs compared to revenue growth [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,982 million yuan in 2025, 2,393 million yuan in 2026, and 3,043 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.37%, 20.73%, and 27.18% respectively [5][7]. - Net Profit Forecasts: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 177.61 million yuan in 2025, 252.88 million yuan in 2026, and 367.84 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -19.10%, 42.38%, and 45.46% respectively [5][7]. - Cash Flow: The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 467 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 240.62% [6][7]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was approximately 31.05%, a decrease of 9.82 percentage points [7]. Business Segment Insights - Backend Drug Development: Revenue from backend drug development and commercialization services reached 765 million yuan, growing by 32.27%, with significant growth in CDMO services [7]. - Frontend Drug Research: Revenue from frontend drug research services was 154 million yuan, a decrease of 7.59%, but new research facilities are expected to improve growth prospects [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading player in the molecular building block sector, leveraging its vertical expansion into CDMO services for long-term growth potential [7].