美指回弹，铜价承压

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals have no significant changes. Demand is at the end of the off - season, lacking upward momentum but showing resilience. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upside of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the recent news on Fed positions and subsequent interest - rate cut situations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Overseas macro: There is continued debate on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the Fed's independence has been questioned recently. A crucial vote in the US Congress next week will determine the Fed's independence [1]. - Supply: Codelco has raised its estimate of accident losses and lowered its 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories have declined to a five - year low. Smelter TC/RC fees have continued to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with an increase in new orders. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are approaching, there is support at the bottom of the market. SHFE copper inventories have declined in the past two days and are oscillating in the low - inventory range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillation under pressure, and the closing price was 78,930 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. On August 27, 2025, the LME official price was 9,772 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.14 US cents/pound [7]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 21,200 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous period. As of August 25, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 273,800 short tons, an increase of 1,662 short tons from the previous period [11].