有色金属日报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market shows a positive trend, with the Shanghai copper closing up and the spot premium expanding. However, the resistance at the integer level is strong, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [1] - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as cost and demand, with short - term fluctuations. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to remain low. The alumina supply is excessive, and it is weakly oscillating [2][5] - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although there is support below, the rebound momentum is insufficient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is maintained in the medium term [3] - The nickel and stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals. Although there is an intention to rebound, short - selling positions are to be sought [6] - The tin market has potential for a short - term upward rush, and long positions held earlier are recommended to be retained [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in a strong - side oscillation. The market focuses on the expectations after production suspension, and risk control is necessary [8] - The industrial silicon market is in an oscillating state, with the supply and demand both increasing. If the polysilicon production declines significantly in September, the supply - demand contradiction will be more prominent [9] - The polysilicon market is also in an oscillating pattern. Although the spot price has rebounded, the actual trading volume has not increased significantly, and the upside space is limited [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive line in an oscillating manner, regaining the MA60 moving average. The current copper price is 79,190 yuan, with the Shanghai premium expanding to 205 yuan and the Guangdong premium remaining at 65 yuan. The SMM social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 127,100 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the US Q2 GDP in the evening. The resistance at the integer level is strong, and short positions at high levels should be held [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly today, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear, and Shanghai aluminum will maintain short - term oscillations. The cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the spot - to - futures cross - variety price difference may further narrow. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the supply is excessive, and it is weakly oscillating, testing the support at the 3,000 - yuan mark [2] Zinc - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Short - sellers increased their positions, and Shanghai zinc opened and closed lower with heavy trading volume. The 22,000 - yuan integer level is under test. The downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and the spot trading improved. The increase in mine production is continuously realized, and funds continue to short - sell the mine profit on the trading floor. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is maintained in the medium term. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption is expected to improve month - on - month but be weak year - on - year. There is support below Shanghai zinc, but the rebound momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the possible return of foreign long - positions [3] Aluminum - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the external market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level under the game between cost and demand, and is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan level. The contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, and the market attention is low. It is recommended to wait and see. There is a strong expectation of smelter maintenance in September, and attention should be paid to the implementation [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and then declined, with dull market trading. Traders are strongly willing to hold prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrolytic nickel remains between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton this week. Affected by the decline in the futures price, the downstream purchasing volume increased this week. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the ferronickel inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained unchanged at 934,000 tons, which is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the end of inventory reduction. Technically, nickel prices still intend to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling positions are to be sought [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a positive line with increased positions, above 272,000 yuan, and the moving average combination shows a bullish arrangement. The current tin price is adjusted to 271,800 yuan, and the real - time discount to the delivery month has further expanded to 560 yuan. It is expected that tin prices still have potential for a short - term upward rush, and the level above 275,000 yuan is a relatively high position. Long positions held earlier are recommended to be retained [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price declined, and the market trading volume shrank. Some miners sold their goods when the futures price rose, and there were sporadic auctions. After the futures price plunged, there was phased reluctance to sell. The downstream continuously adjusted their psychological price levels, and the restocking behavior was generally cautious. The total market inventory slightly decreased by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 47,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 43,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream decreased by 5% week - on - week. The market is mainly focused on the expectations after the downstream production suspension, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on prices. Overall, it is in a strong - side oscillation, and risk control is necessary [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, driven by the sentiment repair of "anti - involution" futures varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. On the fundamental side, the production in the main producing areas of Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and the polysilicon production plan in August increased significantly, forming a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The weekly social inventory slightly decreased. If the polysilicon production declines significantly in September, the supply - demand contradiction will be more prominent. Currently, it is mainly driven by the sentiment of other varieties, and it is expected to maintain oscillations [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures recovered most of the decline, closing at around 49,600 yuan/ton. On the spot side, the SMM data shows that the price of M - type re - feed material has rebounded to 49,000 yuan/ton, but the actual trading volume has not increased significantly. The spot price is restricted by high inventory, and the futures price is also suppressed by the increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertain production - capacity control policy. The upside space is limited. However, there is still an "anti - involution" expectation in the industry, and the risk of short - selling at the lower edge of the range is relatively high. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]