Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.45, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of HKD 23.32 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of RMB 50.878 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.427 billion, also up by 4.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6]. - Heavy truck sales increased by 9.2% to 136,000 units, with domestic and overseas sales growing by 19.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The gross margin slightly improved year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter to 15.1% in the second half of 2024 [6]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.68 per share, representing approximately 55% of the net profit for the first half, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 85,498 million in 2023, RMB 95,062 million in 2024, and RMB 109,886 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.9% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2024 [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 5,318 million in 2023 to RMB 6,719 million in 2025, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share from RMB 1.93 to RMB 2.43 [5][10]. - The company maintains a healthy dividend yield, projected to be 5.0% in 2023, increasing to 6.3% by 2025 [5][10]. Market Position - China National Heavy Duty Truck holds a market share of approximately 27.6%, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the domestic heavy truck market. The report anticipates that the company will achieve sales of 1 million units in the current year, supported by government incentives and a recovery in demand [6][10]. - The heavy truck industry is expected to transition from seasonal recovery to structural growth, benefiting major players like China National Heavy Duty Truck due to increasing demand and favorable policies [6].
中国重汽（03808）：业绩稳健，派息回馈持续，维持买入