观望情绪增加，煤焦震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Coke: The eighth round of coke price increase has been blocked, and the game between upstream and downstream of the black industry chain has intensified, with the spot market temporarily stable. In the futures market, as the "anti-involution" theme has gradually fermented, the market has shifted from the strong cost-side expectation of "shrinking coking coal supply supporting the rise of coke" to the actual verification stage, and the long-short game has become increasingly fierce. Considering that the coal industry may further cooperate with "anti-involution" to introduce relevant policies and measures, the cost-side news is still expected to form a positive support. After a short-term correction, coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [3][30]. - Coking coal: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Overproduction inspections and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still have a certain suppression on supply. However, before the September 3rd parade, coking plants and steel mills are affected by environmental protection restrictions, and coking coal demand also faces certain pressure in the short term. In addition, although the impact of the "anti-involution" policy has been released stage by stage, the coal industry will still actively respond to relevant policies, which is expected to bring new positive news. At present, the long and short factors of coking coal are intertwined, market divergence has increased, and the futures main contract is oscillating within a range. Considering the impact of anti-involution, the callback space of this round of coking coal may be relatively limited [3][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - The "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve said that the Fed may cut interest rates soon, and the independence of the central bank is very important. Market generally expects that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will restart interest rate cuts in September this year, and the current federal funds rate range is 4.25% - 4.50% [5]. - On August 28th, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,470 yuan/ton including tax in cash [6]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi-first-class flat price) | 1,570 | +3.29% | +10.56% | -7.10% | -7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi-first-class ex-warehouse price) | 1,490 | +1.36% | +6.43% | -8.02% | -14.37% | | Coking coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,180 | -0.84% | +2.61% | 0.00% | -16.90% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,580 | +3.27% | +6.04% | +6.04% | -7.60% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,630 | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -5.78% | [7] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,672.5 | -0.51 | 1,678.5 | 1,634.0 | 27,362 | 2,821 | 41,701 | 1,330 | | Coking coal | | 1,175.0 | 0.90 | 1,175.5 | 1,133.0 | 1,446,978 | -151,344 | 741,087 | 16,244 | [11] 4. Related Charts - Coke inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, and 247 steel mill coking plants over the years [12][13][15]. - Coking coal inventory: Charts show the inventory data of mine-mouth coking coal, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [16][19][21]. - Other charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [21][24][28]. 5. Future Outlook - Coke: Similar to the core view, the eighth round of price increase is blocked, and after a short-term correction, it may be easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [30]. - Coking coal: The fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply and demand under certain pressure, and the callback space may be limited considering the anti-involution impact [30].