偏空因素主导，原油偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, influenced by the increase in supply pressure from OPEC+ capacity expansion, lowered global crude oil demand forecasts, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from $70.51/barrel to $61.45/barrel, with a maximum cumulative decline of 12.85%; the Brent crude oil futures price decreased from $73.17/barrel to $65.01/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 11.15%; the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract fell from 528.4 yuan/barrel to 479 yuan/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 9.35% [6]. - The macro - atmosphere is warming up. With the weakening of US non - farm payroll data and the rebound of inflation, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may do so again in December. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation has been postponed by 90 days [6]. - From an industrial perspective, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and the end of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a slowdown in inventory depletion and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. The cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trends in August 2025 - Due to the accelerated expansion of OPEC+ production capacity, the reduction of global crude oil demand forecasts by international energy agencies, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend in August 2025 [12]. 2. Improvement in the Macro - atmosphere and Increased Expectations of Fed Interest Rate Cuts - In August 2025, the overseas macro - level maintained an optimistic atmosphere. Sino - US trade tariff risks were temporarily resolved, and the two sides suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days [19]. - Trump's nomination of "dovish" officials to the Fed increased the possibility of interest rate cuts. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September with a probability of 91.5% [20]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, economic indicators such as industrial added value, social consumption, and foreign trade showed positive trends [33][34][35]. 4. Accelerated Release of OPEC+ Capacity and Aggravated Supply Surplus - OPEC+ has been accelerating production capacity release since the second quarter of 2025. In August and September, it will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day each month, fully restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut in 2023 [55]. - In July 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that global average crude oil supply will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day this year and may increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [56][57]. - The upstream investment in US shale oil is still not prosperous, but policy support may increase future oil and gas output. As of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms decreased, and the daily average crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels [58]. 5. The Peak Crude Oil Demand Season in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere is from June to August. In September, the demand for crude oil will weaken, the refinery operating rate will decline, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase [72]. - In August 2025, the three major global energy institutions released different views on the crude oil market. EIA and IEA lowered their price forecasts and demand growth forecasts, while OPEC was more optimistic about the market in 2026 [73][74][75]. 6. Meeting between US and Russian Presidents and Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In August 2025, the US and Russian presidents held a meeting, but no agreement was reached. The two sides agreed to continue talks in Moscow. Although the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, it is expected to cool down in the future, which will reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil [78][79][81]. 7. Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased. The import volume of refined oil increased slightly year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to July decreased. It is expected that China's crude oil processing and import volume may be restricted by weak demand [86][88]. 8. Significant Decrease in Non - commercial Net Long Positions of European and American Crude Oil in August 2025 - In August 2025, international crude oil futures prices declined, and the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [97]. 9. Summary - In September 2025, the macro - atmosphere will remain warm, but from an industrial perspective, the supply pressure of crude oil will increase, the demand will weaken, and the geopolitical premium will decrease. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [104][105].