橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪减弱，能化收敛跌幅

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved up to 15,945 yuan/ton, and it slightly rose 0.28% to 15,945 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount narrowed to 985 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market, the improvement of macro - expectations competes with the negative industrial factors. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,381 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,356 yuan/ton, and it slightly fell 0.42% to 2,373 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 148 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 483.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.4 yuan/barrel, and it slightly fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/barrel at the close. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil returns to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving the week - on - week recovery of capacity utilization, and enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight increase of 4.82% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. As of August 22, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the average of 183,170 contracts in July. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 176,893 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the average of 220,076 contracts in July. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13] 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change Compared with the Previous Day | Rise/Fall Compared with the Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | 15,945 yuan/ton | - 1,045 yuan/ton | + 185 yuan/ton | - 185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,265 yuan/ton | 2,373 yuan/ton | - 108 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.6 yuan/barrel | 481.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.1 yuan/barrel | + 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 2.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44]