农产品日报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish Ratings: None - Bearish Ratings: None - Neutral or Wait - and - See Ratings: Corn,生猪,鸡蛋,菜粕,菜油,豆油,棕榈油,豆粕,豆一 (where one star indicates a weak bullish or bearish bias with low operability on the market, and white stars indicate a balanced state with poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, weather, and international trade negotiations. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, it is advisable to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 【豆一】 - The price of soybeans is weakly declining. Policy - driven continuous auction sales of soybeans increase supply - side pressure, and demand is weak. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market, with domestic soybeans showing stronger performance than imported soybeans, causing the price spread between domestic and imported soybeans to rebound from a low level. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [2] 【大豆&豆粕】 - Today, the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly. The national spot price slightly declined. A vice - minister of the Ministry of Commerce went to Canada, which may signal an improvement in China - Canada relations. Global oils are strengthening due to bio - diesel policies, which may drive up soybean crushing. China's soybean supply is relatively sufficient in the third quarter but may face a shortage in the first quarter of next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas poses challenges to new - season crops. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] 【豆油&棕榈油】 - Soybean and palm oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market. Malaysian palm oil production decreased month - on - month. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. Long - term development trends of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices while controlling risks. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [4] 【菜粕&菜油】 - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The market is still watching the soybean situation in China - US economic and trade negotiations. The rapeseed market is in a state of inventory reduction, and far - month ship purchases are limited. The average expected production data from Statistics Canada is 20.3 million tons, but there is a possibility of underestimation. In the short - term, the price fluctuation range of rapeseed products is narrowing, and it is advisable to wait and see [6] 【玉米】 - Today, the Dalian corn futures continued to rebound with reduced positions. The current futures price is in line with market expectations for the new - season corn opening price. This year, the domestic corn - producing areas have good weather, and new - season corn may have a bumper harvest. Under the background of falling US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] 【生猪】 - Live hog futures continued to decline weakly. The spot price was slightly adjusted. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. From the perspective of new - born piglets, the supply of live hogs in the second half of the year is high. The spot price of live hogs is expected to continue to decline weakly in the medium - term. Policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but the inflection point of capacity reduction has not been seen. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [8] 【鸡蛋】 - Egg futures continued to decline sharply with increased positions. The spot price was stable with slight declines in some areas. There may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices from late August to September. In the medium - to - long - term, there are signs of accelerated culling of old hens. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of the year is high, and the inflection point of the egg price cycle may occur in the second half of the year. It is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [9]