黑色金属日报-20250828

Report Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a three-star rating (★★★) for Iron Ore, Coking Coal, indicating a clear long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity; a white-star rating for Steel, Coke, Manganese Silicon, and Ferrosilicon, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability and a need for observation [1]. Core Views - The steel market faces negative feedback pressure, but with low inventory levels and approaching peak season, the market may stabilize with cost support. Iron ore supply and demand are marginally weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations and have high short-term volatility. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are following market trends, with relatively weak rebound strength [2][3][4]. Summary by Industry Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. Rebar apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot-rolled coil demand and production declined slightly, with inventory also rising. Pig iron production remained high, facing negative feedback pressure, but low inventory limited the downside. With the approaching peak season, construction material demand is expected to pick up, and the market may stabilize [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose today. Global shipments declined from the high but remained stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventory was volatile with no obvious accumulation pressure. Terminal demand improved seasonally, and although steel mill profitability weakened, there was no strong will to cut production. With the approaching parade, there were expectations of policy-driven production cuts. Overall, supply and demand are weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Coke - Coke prices rebounded today. With a major event approaching, coking plants in East China are expected to cut production. Pig iron production remained high, and steelmaking profits were good. After the eighth round of price increases, coking profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Overall inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing意愿 decreased. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and spot auction results weakened. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total inventory increased. With the resumption of previously shut-down mines, production-side inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [6]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Attention is on the shipping of South32's Australian mines. Pig iron production remained above 240, and weekly production of manganese silicon increased. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly, but due to pre-event stockpiling, prices are expected to have limited downside [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Pig iron production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply increased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. The market is following the trend of manganese silicon [8].