国投期货软商品日报-20250828

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Butadiene Rubber: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Apple, Timber, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber: White star, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, provides short - to medium - term trend forecasts, and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on supply - demand, production data, and price information of each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with stable spot basis in the inland and quiet market transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and textile enterprises sell at reasonable prices [2] - China imported 50,000 tons of cotton in July, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. 200,000 tons of sliding - scale tariff processing trade quotas were issued, which can relieve the cost pressure of some export enterprises [2] - The market expects a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may lead to competition among ginneries. However, the impact is expected to be controllable. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate, and it's recommended to buy on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of July was bullish, and the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term [3] - From a medium - term perspective, the US sugar futures price has not bottomed out. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm is fast this year, and inventory is lower year - on - year [3] - The market's focus has shifted to imports and the output forecast of the next crushing season. The import volume of sugar and syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rise, with increased divergence between bulls and bears. The price of early - maturing apples is high, increasing the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples [4] - The expected output change of apples in the 25/26 quarter is small year - on - year, and there is a lack of bullish drivers on the supply side. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected [4] - In the short term, the market is bullish, but in the long - term, the supply side lacks bullish factors. It's advisable to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated upwards today. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber rose slightly, while the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber has entered the high - yield period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded last week, while that of upstream butadiene plants declined [5] - The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires rebounded last week, and the finished - product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded [5] - Demand is expected to weaken in the short term, rubber supply is increasing, and the market sentiment has improved. It's recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline today, with a large intraday decline. As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [6] - The amount of pulp shipped to China in June was 1.6119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. Currently, domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is relatively loose, and demand is average [6] - It's advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly. The external market price has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot prices is small [7] - The daily outbound volume of ports in the off - season fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions. As of August 22, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.05 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [7] - The supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not started yet. It's advisable to wait and see [7]