供需结构乏力，甲醇偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - With the digestion of the positive effects of China's "anti-involution" policy and the high-level correction of domestic coal futures prices, the cost support for methanol has significantly weakened. The supply of methanol has increased due to the end of domestic device overhauls and the arrival of external supplies, while downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. In August 2025, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with the price dropping from 2500 yuan/ton to 2369 yuan/ton, a cumulative maximum decline of 5.24%. Although the futures price rebounded, the medium-term downward trend continued. In the absence of fundamental improvement, the methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][11]. - From a macro perspective, the weakening of US non-farm payroll data, the rise in unemployment, and a slight rebound in inflation have led the Fed to consider interest rate cuts. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may do so again in December. The enhanced expectation of interest rate cuts and the 90-day postponement of China-US trade tariff negotiations have created a relatively warm macro environment [6]. - From an industrial factor perspective, the weakening cost support, high external import pressure, off-season downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation at ports suggest that the methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Methanol Futures Trends in August 2025 - The digestion of policy benefits and the decline in coal futures prices have weakened cost support. The supply has increased due to the end of overhauls and the arrival of imports, while downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to inventory accumulation. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend in August, with a maximum decline of 5.24%. The medium-term downward trend continued, and the contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [11]. Chapter 2: Improvement in the Macro Environment and Enhanced Expectation of Fed Interest Rate Cuts - In August 2025, the overseas macro environment was relatively optimistic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and both sides suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. Trump's nomination of "dovish" officials and the release of inflation and employment data suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [13][14]. Chapter 3: Steady Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 - In July 2025, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and the cultivation and growth of new productive forces. However, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index declined slightly. Other economic indicators showed positive trends, and the overall economy showed strong resilience and vitality [30][31]. Chapter 4: Year-on-Year Decline in China's Coal Production and Imports in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's raw coal production decreased year-on-year, while coal imports increased compared to June but decreased compared to the same period last year. The annual coal import volume is expected to decline from 5.43 billion tons in 2024 to about 4 billion tons in 2025, which can relieve the supply pressure of thermal coal to some extent [52][54]. Chapter 5: High-Level Operation of Domestic Methanol Supply in August 2025 - Since the third quarter of 2025, the increase in coal prices has led to a significant reduction in the device profits of coal-to-methanol enterprises. Although there was a wave of concentrated overhauls in July, the devices gradually resumed production in late July. As of August 22, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, and the weekly output was 1.8974 million tons. In the second half of the year, the methanol market supply pattern will remain loose, with an expected increase in total production of about 9.5% to 85.5 million tons [57][59]. Chapter 6: Sufficient Overseas Methanol Supply and Increased Import Expectations - In the third quarter, overseas methanol supply is sufficient, but international demand is weak, leading to an increase in exports to China. In July, China's methanol imports were affected by typhoons, with 200,000 tons postponed to August. It is expected that the import volume in August will reach 1.55 million tons, and the high import trend will continue in September. Coastal port methanol inventories are likely to continue to rise, and the 2509 contract is expected to have a large amount of imported goods for delivery [67][69]. Chapter 7: Continued Improvement in the Profitability of Coal-to-Methanol in China in July 2025 - Coal-to-methanol accounts for more than 70% of domestic methanol production capacity, and coal prices have a significant impact on methanol costs. As of August 22, the cost of coal-to-methanol in Northwest China was 2249 yuan/ton, with a profit of 156 yuan/ton. The cost in Shandong was 2418 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 13 yuan/ton. The cost in Inner Mongolia was 2336 yuan/ton, with a profit of 69 yuan/ton [85][87]. Chapter 8: Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in the Off-Season in August 2025 - Since the first half of 2025, the demand for methanol-to-olefins (MTO) has shown a fluctuating trend. In the third quarter, domestic olefin demand has weakened, and the off-season continues. As of August 22, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol)-to-olefin devices was 79.30%, and the futures盘面 profit of methanol-to-olefins was -172 yuan/ton. The traditional downstream demand for methanol also remains in the off-season. In the future, the commissioning of new MTO devices and the improvement of downstream demand are expected to increase methanol demand, but competition pressure and the competitiveness of other raw material routes may affect methanol demand [101][102]. Chapter 9: Summary - Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment is relatively warm due to the expected Fed interest rate cuts and the postponement of China-US trade tariff negotiations. From an industrial factor perspective, the weakening cost support, high external import pressure, off-season downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation at ports suggest that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend [119].