国投期货化工日报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - industries. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - environment [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Production enterprises had low inventory pressure and some price - holding intention, but downstream demand weakened [2] - Polyolefin futures also had narrow - range fluctuations. For polyethylene, supply pressure eased due to increased enterprise maintenance, and downstream factories restocked with limited strength. For polypropylene, supply was expected to increase slightly due to new capacity and reduced maintenance, and short - term downstream new orders were hard to improve significantly [2] Pure Benzene - Benzene had a night - session decline and narrow - range shock during the day. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, and there was a slight destocking. The BZ - NAP spread weakened slightly. There was an expectation of supply - demand improvement in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [3] - Styrene futures closed down. Raw material support was insufficient, supply - demand was weak, and there was a risk of further price decline without sufficient transaction volume [3] Polyester - PX decline drove PTA down. Terminal weaving开工 increased slightly, and there was an expectation of supply - demand improvement for PX, but the current supply - demand was weak. Attention should be paid to device dynamics, oil price direction, and polyester load - increasing rhythm [5] - Ethylene glycol was blocked at 4500 yuan/ton and was expected to fluctuate within a range. Its future upward trend depended on policies and the rhythm of peak - season demand recovery [5] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and prices followed the cost down. There was an expectation of peak - season demand improvement, and a long - position configuration could be considered if demand improved [5] - Bottle chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure. Recent raw material price rebounds led to a decline in processing margins and a weakening of the basis [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol near - month contracts continued to fall. There was a large inventory build - up at ports, and domestic supply increased. Attention should be paid to the macro - atmosphere and the restart progress of Zhejiang MTO devices [6] - Urea futures rose, and spot trading improved. Daily production decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year. Production enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a risk of price changes due to export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC weakened. Cost support was not obvious, and there was supply pressure due to planned new production. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [7] - Caustic soda fell from a high level. Although there was support from alumina demand, there was supply pressure, and the price increase space was limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash weakened. Supply was high with narrow - range fluctuations, and inventory was high at all levels of the industry chain. It was advisable to short at high - rebound levels [8] - Glass weakened. Spot price decline slowed down. There was a weak - reality situation, but considering the low valuation, there might be restocking demand during the peak season, and a long - position at cost - level could be considered [8]