中孚实业（600595）：2025年半年报点评：公司业绩持续修复，静待分红重启

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.3 CNY based on a current price of 5.50 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to recover, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising aluminum prices and cost optimization. The company achieved a net profit of 707 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [2][6]. - The company is expected to resume cash dividends, with a plan to distribute no less than 60% of the distributable profits from 2025 to 2027, reflecting its strong dividend attributes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 10.574 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million CNY, up 59.55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The second quarter saw total revenue of 5.552 billion CNY, down 4.47% year-on-year but up 10.57% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 477 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107.16% [2][6]. - The company’s total assets are valued at 24.116 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.62% [3][7]. Market and Industry Insights - The average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a favorable pricing environment for the company [6]. - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum production capacity to 750,000 tons per year and is focusing on green power development, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the market [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.939 billion CNY, 2.388 billion CNY, and 2.688 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 175.5%, 23.2%, and 12.5% [7][8]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 24.118 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.0% compared to the previous year [7][8].