PTA&MEG：供需改善有所兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]