Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 12:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ninghu Expressway [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 9.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. Excluding construction revenue impacts, revenue decreased by 0.99%, indicating stable core operations [8] - The decline in net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.8%, amounting to 2.424 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced investment income from joint ventures and adjustments in the dividend cycle of Jiangsu Bank [8] - Toll revenue showed a slight increase, with approximately 4.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1.65%. The growth rate varied across major routes due to expansion impacts [8] - The company is advancing its core asset expansion projects, with significant improvements expected in regional traffic flow upon completion of key projects by the end of 2025 and mid-2026 [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025E-2027E at 5.447 billion yuan, 5.790 billion yuan, and 6.049 billion yuan, corresponding to PE multiples of 13, 12, and 11 respectively [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025E are 23.935 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% [7] - The expected net profit for 2025E is 5.447 billion yuan, with a projected EPS of 1.08 yuan per share [7] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 27.1% for 2025E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% [7]