Changjiu Logistics(SH:603569) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Changjiu Logistics [2][7][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.326 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.54%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.1688 million yuan, a decline of 80.66% year-on-year, which is within the expected range [7] - The new highway overload control policies are expected to lead to a clearer and stronger enforcement compared to previous years, which will positively impact freight rates [7][10] - The anticipated increase in freight rates due to the new policies is estimated to be around 27%, which could significantly enhance the profit elasticity for Changjiu Logistics [11][13] - The logistics industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with smaller companies facing risks of elimination, while leading companies like Changjiu Logistics are expected to gain market share and improve service quality [16] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Changjiu Logistics are as follows: 4.896 billion yuan for 2025, 5.711 billion yuan for 2026, and 6.587 billion yuan for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.3%, 16.7%, and 15.3% [6][20] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 88 million yuan in 2025, 129 million yuan in 2026, and 153 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.8%, 46.7%, and 18.1% respectively [6][20] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 60x, 41x, and 35x [7][20]