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中辉能化观点-20250828
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-28 12:36
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bearish: Crude oil, PVC, PP, glass, soda ash, asphalt, methanol [1][23][19][3][39][46] - Cautiously Bearish: LPG, methanol, urea [1][2][42] - Bearish Consolidation: L [1] - Cautiously Bullish: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea [1][27][31][35] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are released, and the risk premium is squeezed out. The supply - side focuses on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [1][6]. - LPG: Cost - end weakens again, and short - term pressure exists. The valuation is repaired, and the basis of the main contract is at a normal level. Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [1]. - L: Cost support weakens, futures and spot prices fall together. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and the supply - demand fundamentals are not prominent. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches [1][16]. - PP: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. The short - term disk follows the sector down. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the absolute price is low, so there is support at the bottom. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices [1][21]. - PVC: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. The supply - chain inventory accumulation pressure remains in the future. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling [1][25]. - PX: The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. The inventory is high but decreasing. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options [1][29]. - PTA: Recent device maintenance increases, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand side shows signs of recovery. TA processing fees are generally low. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][33]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. The inventory is low, and the demand is expected to improve. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][37]. - Methanol: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas devices' loads are at a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory accumulates. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01 [2][40]. - Urea: This week, device maintenance is expected to increase, and the device operating load will decline in the short term. Domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are relatively good. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies [2][44]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases while demand decreases, and the valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. - Glass: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. - Soda ash: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply - demand pattern is weak. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.42%, Brent rising 1.11%, and SC falling 2.27% [5]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, US crude oil inventory accumulation decreases, and OPEC + production increase exerts pressure on the oil price. The oil price still has room for compression and may be pressured to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, and Mexico's crude oil exports increased in July. Demand: India's crude oil imports decreased in July. Inventory: As of August 22, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long term, supply will be surplus. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Lightly short - sell, and pay attention to the range of [475 - 485] for SC [8]. LPG - Market Review: On August 27, the PG main contract closed at 4430 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [10]. - Basic Logic: LPG valuation is repaired, and the main contract basis is normal. Supply slightly increases, and demand from some downstream industries decreases. Inventory: Refinery inventory decreases, and port inventory increases [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price. Close long positions and lightly short - sell. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [12]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7364 yuan/ton (down 38 day - on - day); North China Ningxia coal was at 7270 yuan/ton (down 20 day - on - day) [16]. - Basic Logic: Cost support weakens, and the peak season in September is approaching. Device restarts are expected to increase production, and the overall maintenance volume is high. The demand from the shed film peak season is increasing. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches, and pay attention to the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [16]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 closed at 7021 yuan/ton (down 25 day - on - day); the East China drawn wire market price was 6994 yuan/ton (down 16 day - on - day) [20]. - Basic Logic: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. Device restarts and new capacity release increase supply pressure. Peak - season demand starts, and inventory at factories and traders decreases from a high level. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices, and pay attention to the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [21]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closed at 4949 yuan/ton (down 49 day - on - day); the Changzhou spot price was 4740 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month); warehouse receipts increased by 183 [24]. - Basic Logic: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the 01 contract position reaches a new high. Device maintenance ends, and supply is expected to increase. Exports to India may slow down, and social inventory has been accumulating for 9 weeks. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling. Pay attention to the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [25]. PX - Market Review: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [28]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices slightly increase their loads, and demand - side PTA device maintenance increases. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, and the inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low. Domestic chemical "anti - involution" and other factors are favorable. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [6890 - 7010] for PX511 [29][30]. PTA - Market Review: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton; the TA01 closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton. Spot and basis both strengthened [32]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance increases, and supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. Demand shows signs of recovery, and the market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. TA inventory decreases slightly. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4780 - 4850] for TA01 [33][34]. Ethylene glycol - Market Review: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton; the EG01 closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [36]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. Import and arrival volumes are low. Demand shows signs of recovery, and inventory is low. Cost - end support exists. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4460 - 4500] for EG01 [37][38]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton; the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [39]. - Basic Logic: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas device loads are at a high level. Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and social inventory accumulates. Cost - end coal has support. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01. Pay attention to the range of [2350 - 2390] for MA01 [40][41]. Urea - Market Review: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton; the urea main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [43]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, and supply will be tight in the short term but still loose in the long term. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory accumulates, and cost has support. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies. Pay attention to the range of [1740 - 1770] for UR01 [44][45]. Asphalt - Market Review: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - Basic Logic: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases due to rising operating rates, and demand decreases due to typhoons in the south. The valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. Glass - Market Review: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - Basic Logic: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure as new production lines are expected to start, and demand support is insufficient as downstream orders are low. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. Soda ash - Market Review: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - Basic Logic: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply is high, and demand is mostly for rigid needs. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3].