Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 12:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering the profit growth driven by investment returns and the positive shift in free cash flow [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 3.086 billion CNY, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.286 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.33%, slightly exceeding expectations [4]. - The profit growth is primarily attributed to the increased contributions from joint ventures, particularly from Conch Cement, which contributed 839 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 19.72% [4]. - The company has confirmed a cash flow turning point, with operating cash flow at 915 million CNY, slightly down year-over-year, but free cash flow turned positive at 366 million CNY, leading to the announcement of an interim dividend of 0.10 HKD per share [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a decline from 8,015 million CNY in 2023 to 5,580 million CNY by 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 2%, -22%, -2%, -4%, and -5% [3][5]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,464 million CNY in 2023 to 2,540 million CNY in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of -18%, 16%, 4%, and 4% [3][5]. - Earnings per share are projected to rise from 1.37 CNY in 2023 to 1.42 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 7.2 to 7.0 over the same period [3][5].