板块观点汇总品种：中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a weak outlook for the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The energy and chemical market lacks substantial positive factors, with the medium - term downward drive for crude oil due to the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remaining clear. Different products in the industry have varying fundamentals and technical trends, with most having a bearish or cautious outlook [2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: Short - term macro sentiment provides some support, but there is no real positive news. The medium - term downward drive is clear due to demand and supply factors. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term/downward structure, hourly - level short - term upward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 487. - Strategy: Hold overnight 15 - minute level short positions, with a stop - profit reference at 487 [2][3] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Fundamentals have not improved significantly. High production and inventory, and new device commissioning pressure in September - October will keep supply high. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 7285. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [6] Rubber - Logic: Southeast Asian rainy - season production has not increased significantly, imports have slowed, and domestic natural rubber inventory is decreasing but still at a historical high. Downstream tire demand remains stable. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the 15,950 pressure on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals on the 15 - minute cycle [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Cost - end butadiene supply is abundant, with port inventory rebounding. However, downstream tire demand is stable, and short - term sentiment is strong due to capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level short - term oscillation structure. After significant position - increasing this week, the hourly - level fluctuation has increased. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bullish again, with support at 11,900. - Strategy: Stop loss on yesterday's 15 - minute short positions and look for new entry opportunities after a new downward trend [13] PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and plant operation will increase after the maintenance peak. Demand from the polyester industry is rising with the peak season approaching, resulting in a short - term improvement in fundamentals. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. After breaking through the short - term support at 6915 today, it has turned bearish on the hourly level. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [16][19] PTA - Logic: PTA fundamentals have improved recently, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand increasing. However, the medium - term excess expectation of crude oil and short - term anti - involution sentiment are concerns. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Today, it has declined with increased positions, continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 4840. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: New capacity is being put into operation, and downstream demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with a short - term downward trend on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply and demand are both strong, but the rapid increase in port inventory due to Middle - East shipments is putting pressure on the market. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward/oscillation, short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 2400. - Strategy: Continue to hold remaining hourly - cycle short positions [27] PVC - Logic: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term upward structure, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 5060. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Polyester demand is rising, domestic operation has declined, and port inventory is low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation without breaking through the level, and the short - term trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 4455. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly level [32] Plastic - Logic: PE operation has declined, and downstream demand is weak. However, market sentiment is bullish due to energy and chemical sector sentiment and South Korean capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 7415. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [35] Soda Ash - Logic: Supply remains high, and demand from the glass industry, especially speculative demand, is weak. Inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. - Technicals: Hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 1350. - Strategy: Hold short positions [39] Caustic Soda - Logic: On one hand, anti - involution sentiment and potential transportation restrictions during the 9.3 parade may lead to a reduction in production. On the other hand, its fundamentals have strengthened recently, but the short - term upward potential is limited due to high supply. - Technicals: Hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation, and the upward trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 2670. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [40][41]