燃料油9月报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure in the near - term is relatively high, with disruptions in Russian refinery capacity and low - level exports from Mexico and the Middle East. The seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, but the feedstock demand is still supported by the low cost due to the decline in high - sulfur cracking and tax reform. Near - term, attention should be paid to the generation and digestion rhythm of high - sulfur warehouse receipts [3][4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will maintain a weak and volatile state. The supply pressure continues to increase while there is no specific demand driver. In the near - term, attention should be paid to the on - off situation of the Nigerian RFCC device [4]. - Strategy: For the fuel oil market, the unilateral trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term contango arbitrage opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is no option recommendation [5][68]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil in August: The supply was lower than expected. Disruptions in Russian refineries led to a decline in crude oil processing capacity, and the new coking unit of the Mexican Tula refinery reduced the external supply of high - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand in China increased due to the decline in high - sulfur cracking and tax reform [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil in August: It maintained a weak and volatile state. The supply pressure continued to increase, with unstable operation of the Nigerian Dangote refinery's RFCC device and increased low - sulfur exports to the Pan - Singapore region from the Al - Zour refinery. The proportion of low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in Singapore continued to decline marginally [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil: The near - term supply and high - inventory pressure continue. The seasonal power - generation demand is decreasing, but the feedstock demand is still supported. Attention should be paid to the generation and digestion rhythm of high - sulfur warehouse receipts [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will maintain a weak and volatile state. The supply pressure continues to increase, and there is no specific demand driver. Attention should be paid to the on - off situation of the Nigerian RFCC device [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Weakly volatile. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the short - term contango arbitrage opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil. - Options: None [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply was lower than expected, and the feedstock demand in China increased. The spot premium continued to rise, and the high - sulfur cracking was still suppressed. The near - term inventory in Singapore decreased but remained at a high level [3][9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It maintained a weak and volatile state. The supply pressure increased, and the proportion of low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in Singapore continued to decline marginally. The spot premium fluctuated at a low level, and the low - sulfur cracking increased slightly with the gasoline cracking [3][10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - High - sulfur supply: - Russia: Refineries were continuously attacked, affecting the CDU capacity. The crude oil processing volume decreased in August, and the high - sulfur export supply is expected to decline in September if the situation continues [20][22]. - Mexico: The new coking unit of the Tula refinery reduced the external high - sulfur supply. The Olmeca refinery's processing volume was adjusted frequently, and the high - sulfur export mainly flowed to the US [24]. - Middle East: The US sanctions on Iran continued, and the high - sulfur export remained at a low level [28]. - Low - sulfur supply: - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials has returned to stability, and the raw materials may flow more to the Pan - Singapore region after the port ban in Fujairah [50]. - Al - Zour refinery: The low - sulfur export is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply to the Pan - Singapore region increased [52]. - Nigeria: The RFCC device of the Dangote refinery was still unstable, and the Harcourt refinery was closed for two consecutive months. The low - sulfur export increased in August [53][54]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - High - sulfur demand: - Ship - fuel bunkering: In July, the high - sulfur ship - fuel bunkering volume in Singapore and the market share in the Fujaeirah Port reached the highest level since IMO2020 [36]. - Feedstock demand: Supported by the decline in high - sulfur cracking and tax reform, the feedstock demand in China is expected to remain stable [43]. - Power - generation demand: The high - sulfur power - generation demand in Egypt and the Middle East is gradually declining [45][47]. - Low - sulfur demand: There is no specific demand driver, and the proportion of low - sulfur ship - fuel bunkering is declining marginally. In China, attention should be paid to the quota conversion between refined oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [55][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No specific content provided in the given documents. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Outlook: - High - sulfur fuel oil: The near - term supply and inventory remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected. The seasonal power - generation demand is decreasing, and the feedstock demand is still supported. Attention should be paid to the risk of Yangshan Port being sanctioned and the inventory digestion rhythm [67]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium continues to decline. The supply is increasing, and the demand has no specific driver. Attention should be paid to the adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [67]. - Strategy: - Unilateral: Weakly volatile. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the short - term contango arbitrage opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil. - Options: None [68]