银河期货航运日报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The shipping market shows mixed trends across different segments. In container shipping, the spot market is under pressure with falling prices, and the market anticipates intensified competition among shipping companies in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts. In dry bulk shipping, the market sentiment is complex, but short - term运价 for large and medium - sized ships is expected to be slightly bullish. In oil tanker transportation, the crude oil market is tightening with rising freight rates, while the refined oil market is relatively calm with stable freight rates [5][18][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - Futures Disk Performance: On August 28, all listed futures contracts of the container freight index (European Line) showed declines, with EC2510 closing at 1285 points, down 2.36% from the previous day. The trading volume of some contracts increased significantly, such as EC2510 with a 40.64% increase, and EC2604 with an 85.93% increase [2]. - Container Freight Rates: The SCFIS European Line index was 1990.20 points, down 63.73% year - on - year and 8.71% month - on - month. Most container freight routes showed year - on - year and month - on - month declines [2]. - Fuel Costs: The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $67.2 per barrel, up 0.76% month - on - month and down 14.9% year - on - year; WTI crude oil near - month was $63.34 per barrel, up 0.88% month - on - month and down 15.26% year - on - year [2]. - Market Analysis and Strategy: Mainstream shipping companies face high cargo - collecting pressure, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. The EC disk fell below 1300 points. It is expected that the freight rate support will weaken in the off - season of the second half of the year, and competition among shipping companies will intensify. The trading strategy suggests a bearish and volatile trend for singles, and a rolling operation of reverse spreads between the 10 - 12 contracts at low prices [5][8][9]. Dry Bulk Shipping - Dry Bulk Freight Index: On August 27, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) was 2046 points, up 0.24% day - on - day and 18.88% year - on - year. The Panamax and Supramax bulk carrier demand increased, while the Capesize ship freight index decreased [15]. - Spot Freight Rates: On August 27, the Capesize ship iron ore route: Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) freight rate was $24.71 per ton, down 0.04% month - on - month; Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $10.33 per ton, down 3.68% month - on - month [16]. - Shipping Data: From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 90.8 tons month - on - month. In August 2025, the cumulative soybean shipment was 725.78 tons, and the cumulative corn shipment was 496.04 tons [17]. - Market Analysis and Outlook: The spot market of Capesize ships in Australia and Brazil is differentiated. The Panamax ship market has relatively stable coal and grain cargoes, and the market expectation is optimistic. It is expected that the freight rate of large - sized ships will be slightly bullish in the short term, and the medium - sized ship market will also be slightly bullish [18]. Oil Tanker Transportation - Oil Transportation Market Freight Index: On August 27, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1036, unchanged day - on - day and up 17.59% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 622, down 0.32% day - on - day and up 1.3% year - on - year [23]. - Market Analysis and Outlook: The crude oil market and the refined oil market have different trends. The crude oil market is in an upward trend, and the demand for VLCC and Suezmax increases, supporting the upward movement of freight rates. The refined oil market is relatively calm, and the freight rate maintains a volatile trend [24]. Industry News - Container Shipping: The US plans to complete an investigation into imposing additional tariffs on furniture imports within 50 days. The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil. The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process to completely cancel tariffs on US industrial products [5][10]. - Dry Bulk Shipping: As of the week of August 21, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1305325 tons. In July 2025, the US coal production was expected to be 46.9586 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% [19]. - Oil Tanker Transportation: On August 28, 2025, after the discount of Russian oil weakened, India resumed purchasing Russian oil. The EIA inventory shows that the US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while the refined oil inventory increased [25].