策略日报：探底回升-20250828

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with long-term bonds declining more than short-term ones. The risk of continued decline in interest rate bonds remains high after a period of fluctuation [19] - The A-share market showed a rebound led by the technology sector, with the STAR 50 index rising over 7%. The total market turnover was approximately 3 trillion, with over 2800 stocks rising [21] - The U.S. stock market indices all rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.21%, Dow Jones up 0.32%, and S&P 500 up 0.24%. The dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting opened the door for potential rate cuts [27] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The market's upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending aimed at households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies [21] - The political bureau meeting in July provided a more optimistic outlook on overseas risks compared to April, indicating a high probability of positive outcomes in U.S.-China trade negotiations [21] - The market is advised to avoid chasing high prices and instead focus on buying on dips, utilizing moving averages for incremental purchases [21] Group 3: U.S. Market Analysis - Powell's remarks suggest a high tolerance for inflation increases while being cautious about employment market weaknesses, indicating a low threshold for easing and a high threshold for tightening [27] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a return of speculative behavior, with expectations that the U.S. market will challenge new highs [27] Group 4: Currency Market Overview - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1385, down 211 basis points from the previous close. The dovish tone from Jackson Hole led to a significant drop in the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated [30] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.16%, with steel and corn sectors leading gains while polyester and oil sectors lagged. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the July 10 low as support [36]