商品期货早班车-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trading strategies and market analyses for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes to make investment suggestions [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Given that the Fed's independence is questioned, the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of Fed rate cuts has increased significantly, it is recommended to go long on gold. Silver has followed gold's rally, and there are short - term long - trading opportunities due to its entry into the US critical minerals list and the threat of increased tariffs [2]. - Silver: Follows gold's trend. With the threat of increased tariffs after entering the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - Copper: The market showed a volatile trend. With the Fed's independence challenged, the dollar index weakened, and market concerns about radical rate cuts emerged. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased slightly. With signs of improvement in the macro - environment and industry supply - demand, and the approaching peak season, it is expected that the price will be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The price of the main contract decreased. The fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and it is not advisable to chase short positions. If holding spot, one can sell call options [2][4]. - Zinc: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply has increased significantly, while consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [4]. - Lead: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is expected to tighten, but the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract fluctuated. The supply side has some issues, and the demand side is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is strong while demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand of building materials is neutral to weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2510 contract [5][6]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, but the margin is slightly weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, while the domestic market is affected by negotiation expectations and state reserves sales. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - Corn: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Sugar: The international market is affected by Brazil's production, and the domestic market shows signs of stabilization. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options in the options market [8]. - Cotton: The international cotton has some growth issues, and the domestic market is concerned about spot shortages. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Palm Oil: The supply - demand is increasing, with near - term inventory accumulation and long - term tightness expected. The overall outlook for oils is bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after the valuation rises [8]. - Apples: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate [8]. - Eggs: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Pigs: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [9]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [10]. - PVC: The price decreased. The trading driver is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PTA: In the short term, the supply has tightened significantly, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short the processing margin of far - month contracts [10][11]. - Rubber: With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - Glass: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PP: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [11]. - MEG: With low inventory providing support, but medium - term inventory accumulation pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to peak - season orders [11]. - Crude Oil: The market is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short the SC main contract near 500 yuan/barrel [12]. - Styrene: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as supply recovers, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or short the profit margin [12]. - Soda Ash: The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is seasonally strengthening, and it is recommended to go long [12].