Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Short-term oil price increase lacks momentum, palm oil may experience a correction, and holders of long positions can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips. - YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit-taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction. - Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [6][9][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8372 with a decrease of 18. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8572, 8722, and 8512 respectively. The basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 350, 200, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 10, 0, and 10. For palm oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9414 with a decrease of 86. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9384, 9464, and 9554 respectively. The basis for palm oil in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is -30, 50, and 140 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0, 30, and 0. For rapeseed oil, the closing price of 2601 is 9809 with a decrease of 44. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9929, 9849, and 9849 respectively. The basis for rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 120 and 40 respectively, with no change [3]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 268 with a decrease of 2, for palm oil is 260 with an increase of 8, and for rapeseed oil is 157 with a decrease of 13 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The Y - P spread for the 01 contract is -1042 with an increase of 68, the OI - Y spread is 1437 with a decrease of 26, the OI - P spread is 395 with an increase of 42, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.75 with a decrease of 0.0005 [3]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a盘面 profit of -242, with a CNF price of 1120 for the 9 - month shipment. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 10 - month shipment is 1075, and the 盘面 profit is -751 [3]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 34th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 109.4 million tons, palm oil is 58.2 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 64.6 million tons [3]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 39.42 million tons of 24/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2989.56 million tons. They also sold 11.89 million tons of 25/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 78.96 million tons. The total sales of all - season soybeans for the week were 51.65 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 7147.94 million tons. As of August 20, the cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - season soybeans was 846.2 million tons, and that of 25/26 - season soybeans was 0 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: There were many rumors about rapeseed today. After the rumors were refuted in the afternoon, the oil prices rebounded. As of August 22, 2025 (week 34), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country was 58.21 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.70%, and it is at a slightly higher - than - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes have decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market has changed little, and the basis has increased steadily. The soybean oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 118.6 million tons, an increase of 4.33 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.79%, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the average of the past three years. The rapeseed oil futures price closed slightly lower after oscillating. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 44,800 tons, with an operating rate of 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally [5][6][9]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - Single - Side Strategy: Short - term oil price increase lacks momentum, and there may be a correction, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to buy on dips [11]. - Arbitrage Strategy: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP spreads can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to widen after a correction [11]. - Options Strategy: Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [12]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of Y, P, and OI, the Y - P 01 spread, and the OI - Y 01 spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18].
银河期货油脂日报-20250828
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-28 14:50