Guoyuan Securities·2025-08-28 15:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with expected net profits of 4.72 billion, 5.08 billion, and 5.40 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.57%, 7.77%, and 6.24% [5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 20.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.21% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 4.73 million kiloliters, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end products rising to 42.1% [2] - The company experienced a decrease in unit costs, with the cost per kiloliter of beer down by 3.7% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2][4] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 4.73 million kiloliters, with the Qingdao main brand's sales at 2.71 million kiloliters, reflecting a 3.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The second quarter saw total sales of 2.47 million kiloliters, with mid-to-high-end product sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year [2] Regional Performance - The company’s revenue in Shandong and North China ranked first and second, with respective revenues of 13.11 billion and 3.82 billion yuan, showing increases of 1.53% and 2.18% year-on-year [3] Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin and net profit margin improved in the first half of 2025, reaching 43.70% and 19.05% respectively, due to the decline in raw material prices [4] - In the second quarter, the net profit margin rose to 21.84%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 32.87 billion, 33.83 billion, and 34.77 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.72 billion, 5.08 billion, and 5.40 billion yuan [7]