历史性持仓下的鸡蛋合约走势

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "【Galaxy Special Report】Trend of Egg Contracts under Historical Positions" and was released on August 28, 2025 [2] - It focuses on analyzing the current situation and influencing factors of the egg market, aiming to assist in market trend analysis [3] Group 2: Market Background - The egg contract price has experienced a significant decline, with the September contract reaching a historical low, while the contract holdings have reached a historical high, indicating a large market divergence [3] - The bears believe that the current high in - stock laying hen inventory, large cold - storage egg inventory, and the lack of price increase in the peak season suggest a poor outlook for the egg market [3] - The bulls think that most of the negative factors have been digested, the current futures price is at a historical low, and farmers have been in losses, so they expect future price increases due to large - scale culling [3] Group 3: Influencing Factors In - stock Laying Hen Inventory - In July 2025, the national in - stock laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase, higher than expected [4] - The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [4] - Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated in - stock laying hen inventories from August to November 2025 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [4] - High replenishment from the second half of last year to the first half of this year indicates continuous high supply pressure in the future, and regular culling is insufficient to reduce production capacity [4] Cold - storage Egg Inventory - Since the second quarter, many traders and middlemen have stocked cold - storage eggs. As of August 21, the weekly cold - storage egg inventory in major markets was over 285,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [11] - The limited shelf - life of cold - storage eggs (4 - 6 months) means that any price increase will lead to the release of cold - storage eggs, putting pressure on future egg prices [11] Egg Price Seasonality - Historically, egg prices usually rise seasonally in August and September, reaching the annual high. However, this year, prices have not increased, and the average price in the main production areas is 3.07 yuan per catty, with the lowest price in Handan, Hebei, reaching 2.7 yuan per catty [12] Culling Situation - Feed costs are expected to remain low in the future, so large - scale and extensive culling is the key to changing the current oversupply situation [14] - In the week of August 28, the culling volume in the main production areas was 18.51 million, a 10.4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age has decreased from over 530 days in May to 496 days, and the culling price has dropped from 5.7 - 5.8 yuan per catty to around 4.6 yuan per catty [15] - Although the current culling enthusiasm has increased, it is still insufficient to completely reverse the market situation [15] Group 4: Conclusion - As egg contract holdings increase, many investors want to build long positions. The report suggests not rushing to build long positions until there is evidence of large - scale, long - term, and extensive culling [25] - Key monitoring indicators include culling volume, the duration of low - price spot eggs, price reversals (especially in Handan), and capital inflows and outflows in the futures market [25]