银河期货农产品日报-20250828

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Apple Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 6.86, up 0.03 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8290, up 138 from the previous trading day - AP05: 8215, up 125 from the previous trading day - AP10: 8414, up 136 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4] - Customs Data: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.76% [6] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for 80 first and second - grade apples was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] Trading Logic - The current market inventory is low, and the market demand is in the off - season. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. The early - maturing apples have a low excellent fruit rate, and the price of high - quality apples is high while that of low - quality apples is low. It is expected that the price of new - season Fuji apples will be high at the initial stage of listing, and the short - term futures market will fluctuate slightly stronger [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Since the excellent fruit rate of new - season apples may be poor, it is recommended to build long positions on dips and conduct low - buying and high - selling rolling operations [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main basis, etc. [15][17][23][25]