银河期货每日早盘观察-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in the international soybean market has improved significantly. The pressure on the supply side has gradually eased, and the carry - over stock provides obvious support at the current price. The domestic soybean market has a high arrival volume and large crushing volume, with obvious inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international sugar price trend. In the oil market, the price of palm oil is supported by the firm price in Indonesia, and the domestic vegetable oil market has different fundamentals. The corn market has different trends at home and abroad, and the pig market supply pressure is expected to improve. The peanut market has a weak downstream consumption, and the egg market has obvious supply - side pressure. The apple market is expected to have a slightly stronger short - term trend, and the cotton - yarn market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][12][19][26][33][39][49][57][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - External Market Conditions: CBOT soybean index fell 0.09% to 1064.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.78% to 291.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - Relevant Information: Brazil's soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were adjusted; Argentina's soybean planting area from March to May 2026 is expected to decline; domestic soybean inventory increased slightly, and soybean meal inventory increased [2][3]. - Logic Analysis: The international soybean market supply - demand situation has improved, and the domestic market has inventory accumulation pressure [4]. - Strategy Recommendations: Long soy and rapeseed meal on dips for far - month contracts; expand the MRM05 spread on dips; buy call options [7]. Sugar - External Market Changes: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, and London white sugar price rose [8]. - Important Information: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports increased slightly in the first four weeks of August; domestic processed sugar quotes were stable with general transactions; ICE raw sugar futures + options positions changed [9][10][11]. - Logic Analysis: The global sugar market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the international market [12]. - Position Recommendations: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the international market with a small - range oscillating trend; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [13][14][15]. Oilseeds - External Market Conditions: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices changed [17]. - Relevant Information: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August; the US may exempt Indonesia's palm oil from tariffs; India's vegetable oil industry hopes to cancel tax credit restrictions; Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products [18][19]. - Logic Analysis: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, and domestic vegetable oil has different fundamentals [19]. - Trading Strategies: Consider buying on dips for short - term oil price corrections; expand the P15 spread on dips; wait and see for options [20][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - External Market Changes: CBOT corn futures fell [24]. - Important Information: South Africa's corn harvest will increase; domestic port corn inventory and shipment volume decreased; corn starch inventory decreased slightly [25]. - Logic Analysis: US corn has room for rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [26]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on CBOT December corn on dips; go long on 01 corn on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29][30]. Pig - Relevant Information: Pig prices rebounded in some regions; piglet and sow prices fell; the national average pork price decreased [32]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is expected to improve, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [33]. - Strategy Recommendations: Buy far - month contracts on dips; conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; wait and see for options [36]. Peanut - Important Information: The national average peanut price fell; peanut production and oil mill demand are limited; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [37][38]. - Logic Analysis: New - season peanuts are expected to have sufficient supply, and the market is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase [39][41]. - Trading Strategies: 11 and 01 peanut contracts are in a bottom - oscillating phase, and try short - term long on 05 peanut contracts; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [42][43][44]. Egg - Important Information: Egg prices in main production and sales areas changed; the number of laying hens increased; egg sales volume decreased; inventory increased; egg farming profit improved [46][47][48]. - Trading Logic: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [49]. - Trading Strategies: Short on rallies; short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; sell out - of - the - money call options [50][51][52]. Apple - Important Information: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; import and export volume changed; early - maturing apple varieties were on the market, and prices were polarized; apple prices in Shandong were stable, and storage profit decreased [54][55][56]. - Trading Logic: The short - term market trend is expected to be slightly stronger [57]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on dips for new - season apples and operate with low - buying and high - selling; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [60][61][62]. Cotton - Yarn - External Market Influence: ICE US cotton prices fell [64]. - Important Information: US cotton growing conditions improved; India's cotton planting area growth slowed; Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was slower than last year [65][66]. - Trading Logic: The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger [67]. - Trading Strategies: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [68].