银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250828

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side pressure on eggs is still significant. The in - production laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs previously stocked in the market are flowing out, putting downward pressure on prices. As a result, egg prices are not rising during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds, and short positions can be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Price: The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is mainly stable today, with egg prices in Beijing markets dropping by 2 yuan per box. Egg prices in Northeast Liaoning are falling, while those in Jilin and Heilongjiang are stable. In other regions, prices are mostly stable with some fluctuations [6]. - Inventory: In July, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated in - production laying hen inventories from August to November 2025 are approximately 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - Chick and Hen Culling: In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. From August 21 - 28, the national main production area laying hen culling volume was 18.51 million, a 10% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of hens was 496 days, a 4 - day decrease from the previous week [7]. - Sales Volume: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8]. - Inventory Days: As of the week of August 28, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.06 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/hen from the previous week. Today, the national culled hen price has dropped, with the main production area average price at 4.64 yuan/jin, a 0.05 yuan/jin decrease from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic Supply - side pressure is obvious. The in - production inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the outflow of cold - stored eggs has put pressure on prices. As a result, egg prices are not rising during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider short positions on rallies [10]. - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10]. - Options: Sell call options [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chick prices, culled hen prices, feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, price spreads, basis, and farming profit expectations [12][17][20]