乙二醇日报：乙二醇成本支撑不佳，盘面上方压力偏强-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may decline slightly due to cost drag, with the upside limited by port inventory pressure and weak demand, and the downside supported by coal - based production costs. Attention should be paid to whether the September coal - chemical plant maintenance plan is implemented and the de - stocking rhythm of polyester filament inventory [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,490 yuan/ton to 4,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 4,473 - 4,509 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China also dropped slightly by 5 yuan/ton to 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 9 yuan/ton to 69 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rose from - 41 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, while the 5 - 9 spread fell from 91 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the main contract increased by 10.74% to 168,000 lots, indicating increased short - term trading activity of funds, and some short - sellers may have chosen to take profits and leave the market. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,049 lots to 277,223 lots, declining for two consecutive days [1] - The overall operating rates of ethylene glycol from oil - based, coal - based, and total sources remained at 66.22%, with no change compared to the previous period. The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%. Weak terminal weaving orders led to no seasonal rebound in polyester sales, and the inventory pressure of filaments still existed, suppressing the rigid procurement demand for ethylene glycol [1] 2. Inventory - The inventory at the main ports in East China climbed to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The port unloading efficiency improved while the arrival volume dropped to 10.17 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 39.7%), reflecting weak actual shipments and prominent pressure of hidden inventory becoming explicit [2] 3. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped by 0.2% to 4,481 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 10.74% to 168,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.16% to 277,223 lots. The spot price in East China dropped by 0.11% to 4,540 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened by 15% to 69 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.63% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.99% to 81 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8% to - 46 yuan/ton. The coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 252 yuan/ton [4] - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [4] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4] 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 27, the price in the East China US dollar market was strong in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The price in the mainstream market dropped at the opening, and the price offered by holders in the South China market was lowered to around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, international oil prices fell, and the ethylene glycol market rebounded after a decline, with the current price in East China around 4,560 yuan/ton [5] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and total inventory in the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]