Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-29 00:45Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - For股指期货, it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. - For外汇 futures (US Dollar Index), the US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - For US stock index futures, it is suggested to buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. - For treasury bond futures, it is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. - For other sectors such as commodities, specific investment suggestions are provided for each commodity, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, and waiting and seeing [26][28][29] Core Views - The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing, and marginal changes need attention [2][14]. - The US labor market shows resilience with lower - than - expected initial jobless claims, and the market risk preference remains high. The Federal Reserve officials are releasing signals of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on the US stock and foreign exchange markets [17][20][21]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to the complex influence of macro and fundamental factors; the price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as export sales, reserve sales, and Sino - US relations [5][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Chinese trade representative will visit the US. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released. The A - share market has a V - shaped reversal with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but market divergence is increasing [13][14]. - Investment suggestion: Evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are disputes over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. German Chancellor Merz says a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely. The US initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected [16][17]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US initial and continuing jobless claims last week were lower than expected. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September meeting [20][21]. - Investment suggestion: Buy on dips after short - term corrections as the upward trend of US stocks has not reversed [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 4161 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1631 billion yuan. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened recently, and the bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory trend [23]. - Investment suggestion: It is in a recent oscillatory trend, and when going long, one needs to pay attention to the absolute price, funds, and market sentiment [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The export sales of US new - crop soybeans were better than expected. China will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the overseas market [25][26]. - Investment suggestion: Affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, soybean meal is weaker than the overseas market. The focus later is on China's purchase of US soybeans [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean shipments to China were 0 tons in the week ending August 21. The oil market continued to oscillate at a high level and had a slight correction [27]. - Investment suggestion: The oil market still lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on dips considering India's replenishment demand and the unfavorable inventory accumulation data of Malaysian palm oil in August [28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn consumption of starch sugar products increased slightly this week, while the corn starch consumption decreased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [29]. - Investment suggestion: The corn - starch price difference has fallen to a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are opportunities to widen the spread driven by factors such as the regional price difference of raw materials [29]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises and the average inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot market was cautious, while the futures rebounded. The short - term price decline rhythm may change [30][31][32]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term long positions entered earlier should be closed at an appropriate time. After the selling pressure is gradually realized, pay attention to whether there are new opportunities to go short on rallies [33]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,400 tons week - on - week. The supply - demand fundamentals of steel products still face pressure, but the industry policy has a positive impact on market sentiment [34][35]. - Investment suggestion: In the short term, a oscillatory approach should be adopted for steel prices [36]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie Indonesian coal has loosened, and the port coal price has fallen. The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. - Investment suggestion: The coal price is expected to be seasonally weak, but there is support below 650 yuan [37]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The number of sugar - carrying ships waiting at Brazilian ports increased, and the estimated sugar production in Brazil was lowered. The international sugar price is expected to oscillate, and the outlook for the fourth - quarter external market is optimistic. The domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as imports and warehouse receipts [38][40][41]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price has fallen rapidly recently. The 1 - month contract can wait for opportunities to go long on dips, with a target price of around 5500 yuan or after the September contract is delivered [41]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto adjusted its operation mode and executive committee. The iron ore price continued to oscillate, and the short - term supply - demand pressure was not large [42]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the actual trading volume after the price increase. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to positive spread trading opportunities [43]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market increased. The downstream arrivals decreased, and the spot price was firm but lacked upward momentum. The new - season production is uncertain [43][44]. - Investment suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the production area and the results of on - the - spot investigations [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - KoBold Metals obtained seven lithium ore exploration licenses in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The short - term supply - demand balance is affected by factors such as imports and production resumption, and there is support at the bottom [45]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and positive spread trading opportunities [46]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - JinkoSolar's semi - annual report shows high - volume shipments but losses. The polysilicon price is stable, and the market is in a game about whether the upstream price increase can be transmitted downstream. The September production is uncertain [47][48]. - Investment suggestion: The downside space of the futures price is more definite, and the upside space depends on factors such as component bidding prices and production cuts. Unilaterally, a bullish view on dips can be maintained, and for arbitrage, pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2000 yuan/ton [49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry's semi - annual report shows a loss. The production and inventory of industrial silicon are affected by the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the resumption of production progress of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price may operate in the range of 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [51]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Yunnan Copper produced 779,400 tons of cathode copper in the first half of the year. Jiangxi Copper's semi - annual profit increased. The Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Canada resumed operation. The copper price is affected by macro and fundamental factors and is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53][54]. - Investment suggestion: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association focuses on illegal mining in the nickel industry. The nickel price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to have band - trading opportunities, and medium - term short - selling opportunities can be considered [57][58][59]. - Investment suggestion: Short - term band - trading opportunities can be paid attention to, and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. The downside space depends on factors such as the decline of raw material prices and downstream restocking [59]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of liquefied petroleum gas in China increased, and the inventory situation was mixed. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [63]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price decreased on August 28. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [64]. - Investment suggestion: The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased less than expected. The natural gas price has support at the current level, and the export demand is strong. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. - Investment suggestion: The NYMEX natural gas price is expected to oscillate in the short term [67]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable. The market is affected by factors such as transportation and inventory [68][69]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious when chasing high prices [69]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mostly stable. The pulp market is in a weak fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate weakly [70][71]. - Investment suggestion: The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [71]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price decreased slightly. The market is affected by factors such as futures prices and downstream demand. It is expected to oscillate [72][73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate [73]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene decreased slightly. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure is large. The market is affected by factors such as policies and oil prices [74][75]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to internal and external policy variables [75]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased, and the major manufacturers will maintain a minimum 20% production cut in September. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated [76][78]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether new production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled in September. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased locally. The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [79][80][81]. - Investment suggestion: The short - term unilateral price will oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on dips in a rolling manner [82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The soda ash price is in a weak and stable oscillation. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. - Investment suggestion: Sell on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [83]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The glass price was affected by the equity market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and it is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage [84][85]. - Investment suggestion: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage. Pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [85]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The cargo and container throughput of major ports from January to July increased year - on - year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high. The freight rate is expected to continue to decline [86][87]. - Investment suggestion: The 10 - contract has broken through the 1300 support, and the next test is the 1250 support level [87].