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中原期货晨会纪要-20250829
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:06
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the market, including macro - economic news, price movements of various commodities, and specific views on different product sectors. It also analyzes the short - term and medium - term trends of the stock market, suggesting that the market may experience short - term fluctuations but maintains a medium - term bullish structure [9][10][20][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - From August 24th to 27th, Chinese official representatives visited Canada, and both sides agreed to promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. Subsequently, they will visit the US. The Chinese government will increase support for foreign trade enterprises, strengthen law enforcement in market competition order, and implement policies in multiple fields such as education, urban development, and data industry. The EU's economic confidence declined in August [9][10][11]. - The "2025 China's Top 500 Private Enterprises" list was released, with the entry threshold increasing to 27.023 billion yuan, total revenue reaching 43.05 trillion yuan, and total net profit of 1.8 trillion yuan [10]. - The National Data Bureau plans to launch a series of industrial policies this year, and it is predicted that the digital economy's added - value will reach about 49 trillion yuan by the end of this year, accounting for about 35% of GDP [10]. 3.2 Price Movements of Commodities - Chemical Industry: On August 29th, most chemical products' prices showed a downward trend compared to August 28th. For example, the price of coking coal decreased by 21.50 yuan to 1,153.50 yuan, a decline of 1.83%; the price of crude oil increased by 4.90 yuan to 486.60 yuan, an increase of 1.017% [6]. - Agricultural Products: The prices of most agricultural products also fluctuated. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans decreased by 3.00 yuan to 3,924.00 yuan, a decline of 0.076%; the price of No. 1 cotton increased by 200.00 yuan to 14,270.00 yuan, an increase of 1.421% [6]. 3.3 Specific Views on Different Product Sectors 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On August 28th, peanut futures closed at 7,802 yuan/ton, showing narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, with key support at 7,780 yuan and resistance at 7,830 yuan [14]. - Sugar: On August 28th, sugar futures closed at 5,602 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend. A bearish strategy is maintained, with key support in the 5,550 - 5,580 yuan range [14]. - Corn: On August 28th, corn futures closed at 2,185 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see, with key pressure at 2,180 - 2,190 yuan and support at 2,150 - 2,160 yuan [14]. - Pigs: The national average pig price was about 13.88 yuan/kg, with supply - demand games continuing. The futures market is bearish [14]. - Eggs: The national egg price was stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the price will rise slightly, but the increase is limited. Futures can be short - sold on rebounds [14][16]. - Cotton: ICE US cotton futures declined. Zhengzhou cotton has support from the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the overall inventory is high. Short - term long positions can be taken at low prices [16]. - Logs: On August 28th, log futures closed at 821.5 yuan/cubic meter. The market is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to operate in the 800 - 850 yuan range [16]. - Pulp: On August 28th, pulp futures closed at 5,002 yuan/ton, with a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with key support at 4,950 yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - Urea: The domestic urea price increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand may improve. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 1,700 - 1,800 yuan range, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender on September 2nd [16]. - Caustic Soda: With the approaching peak demand season, the 2601 contract of caustic soda is running at a high level, and a bullish strategy can be adopted at low prices [18]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market trading volume is insufficient. Supply has decreased, and it is expected that the prices will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: For copper, if the price breaks through the oscillation range, a bullish strategy can be adopted. Aluminum consumption has improved, and the price is expected to remain high [18]. - Alumina: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The 2601 contract is running weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The spot market trading improved, and the price may fluctuate in the short term but has upward potential in the medium term [18][19]. - Ferroalloys: The black - series products rebounded, and the alloy market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. High - level hedging should control funds, and speculation should be cautious [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price has fallen below the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see, and light - position long positions can be taken after a sharp decline with strict stop - losses [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On August 28th, the three major A - share indexes rose. The market may experience short - term fluctuations but maintains a medium - term bullish structure. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the index movement [20]. - Stock Market: The A - share market showed a rebound on August 28th. The market may experience short - term fluctuations, but the medium - term bullish structure remains unchanged. It is recommended to observe the market's repair strength and trading volume in the short term [20][22].